When Public Opinion Becomes Climate Capacity: Evidence from U.S. Counties

By: Muh Pungki Nur Setiawan

Edited By: Stephen Shiwei Wang

Introduction

Climate change is no longer a distant risk but an ongoing reality shaped by human activity and policy choices. Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise across sectors, even as governments adopt increasingly ambitious commitments to reduce them.¹ In the United States, emissions exceeded 6,300 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents in 2022, reflecting both the scale and persistence of the challenge.² Yet beneath these national aggregates lies a more puzzling pattern: emissions vary widely across local jurisdictions, even among places facing similar economic and regulatory conditions.

Climate change represents a persistent policy challenge: emissions are an ongoing feature of modern economies, yet the social, political, and technological conditions that shape them are constantly evolving, and most of the time are counted as externalities. Addressing this challenge requires policy approaches that are not only sustained over time but also responsive to changing local conditions. More broadly, global problems often exhibit a dual reality: conditions can be severe or worsening, but at the same time still capable of further progress.³ Understanding this interaction is essential for explaining how climate transitions unfold over time.

Why do some counties in the U.S. consistently exhibit lower emissions than others? Traditional explanations emphasize industrial structure, income, and policy frameworks, which shape incentives for production and technological change.⁴ While these factors explain broad patterns, they do not fully account for why similar counties can exhibit very different emissions trajectories. One dimension remains underexplored: the role of public opinion.

Public attitudes toward climate policy are often treated as political constraints rather than as part of the transition process itself. However, public opinion plays a central role in shaping whether policies are adopted and sustained. A lack of broad public support can hinder progress toward a low-carbon transition, while stronger support may enable it.⁵ At the same time, evidence suggests that greater public concern about climate change is associated with lower emissions, indicating that attitudes may translate into real-world outcomes.

This article introduces the concept of climate transition receptivity, defined as the extent to which local populations support climate policy interventions. Rather than viewing public opinion solely as a political variable, the concept reframes it as a measurable dimension of local transition readiness.

This article examines 1) whether public opinion reflects local readiness for climate transition and 2) how that readiness relates to emissions.

Public Opinion Matters

Public opinion is often discussed in political terms, as a determinant of electoral outcomes or policy feasibility, but its role extends beyond politics. It reflects deeper social and institutional conditions that shape how communities respond to environmental challenges.

Support for climate policy is not formed in isolation. It emerges from a combination of beliefs, knowledge, perceived risks, and judgments about policy effectiveness.⁶ These factors influence not only voting behavior but also everyday decisions, community norms, and institutional responses. In this sense, public opinion can be understood as a form of institutional capacity, a signal of whether a community is prepared to support and sustain climate action.

Economic research reinforces this view. Policies such as carbon pricing can redirect innovation away from polluting technologies and toward cleaner alternatives, but their success depends on political feasibility and public acceptance.⁷ Without sufficient support, even well-designed policies may fail to take hold.

Public opinion, therefore, operates through multiple channels. It shapes policy adoption, influences behavior, and interacts with economic incentives to determine environmental outcomes. Rather than a passive constraint, it may be an active component of the transition process itself.

Data and Approach

We combine multiple data sources to capture both emissions outcomes and public attitudes toward climate policy at the local level, spanning 2018 to 2021.

First, emissions data are drawn from the Vulcan fossil fuel CO₂ emissions dataset, which provides high-resolution estimates of carbon emissions across the contiguous United States.⁸ These data capture emissions from key sectors such as transportation, industry, and power generation and are aggregated to the county level.

Second, public opinion data come from the Yale Climate Opinion Maps, which estimate county-level climate beliefs and policy support using a statistical downscaling approach based on national surveys.⁹ These data provide a detailed picture of how climate attitudes vary across communities. Using these measures, we construct a composite Climate Transition Index to capture the support for renewable energy investment, emissions regulation, and limits on carbon output. The index reflects the extent to which local populations align with climate transition objectives.

Third, population data are drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau, which provides annual county-level population estimates.¹⁰ These data allow emissions to be compared across counties on a consistent basis.

This combination of high-resolution emissions data and geographically disaggregated opinion measures allows for a direct comparison between environmental outcomes and public attitudes across U.S. counties.

To evaluate the relationship between public opinion and emissions, we estimate a model in which emissions depend on climate transition receptivity, beliefs, engagement, fossil fuel attitudes, and standard controls:

Emissions=f(Climate Transition Index, Beliefs, Engagement, Fossil Attitudes, Controls)

In simple terms, this approach examines how emissions vary with public support for climate policy while accounting for differences in knowledge, information exposure, and fossil fuel preferences.

What the Data Shows

The results reveal a consistent but nuanced relationship between climate transition receptivity and emissions. Rather than a single effect, the relationship changes depending on how it is measured, offering a dynamic picture of how public opinion interacts with environmental outcomes.

Finding 1: Across Counties

Across counties, higher levels of climate transition receptivity are associated with lower emissions. Counties where residents express stronger support for climate policies tend to exhibit systematically lower emissions levels. This pattern suggests that public opinion reflects broader structural differences, including institutional readiness, policy environments, and behavioral norms.

Finding 2: Within Counties

When examining changes within counties over time, the relationship reverses. Increases in climate policy support are associated with higher emissions. This suggests that public opinion responds to environmental conditions: as emissions rise, communities become more concerned and more supportive of climate action.

Finding 3: Over Time

When accounting for timing, a different pattern emerges. Higher levels of climate transition receptivity in the past are associated with lower emissions in the future. This lagged relationship indicates that the effects of public opinion unfold gradually, likely through policy implementation, behavioral change, and technological adjustment.

Summary of Findings

Variable	Direction	Significance	Interpretation
Climate Transition Index	Negative	Strong	Higher policy support is associated with lower emissions.
Climate Beliefs	Mixed	Moderate	Knowledge lowers emissions, while concern often reflects higher-emission contexts.
Engagement	Mixed	Strong	Greater exposure is linked to lower emissions, though it may also reflect local environmental problems.
Fossil Support	Positive	Strong	Support for fossil fuels is associated with higher emissions.

Interpreting the Pattern

Taken together, these findings point to a dynamic relationship between public opinion and emissions.

In the short run, public opinion appears reactive. As emissions increase, communities become more aware of environmental risks and more supportive of climate policies. In the longer run, public opinion becomes consequential. Sustained support creates the conditions necessary for policy adoption, behavioral change, and technological transition.

This helps explain why the results differ across settings. Cross-sectional patterns reflect structural differences across places, while within-county changes capture responses to evolving conditions. These patterns are consistent with economic theories of path-dependent change.¹¹ Public support can influence these trajectories by enabling policies that redirect investment and innovation over time.

Policy Implications

These findings carry several implications for climate policy. First, timing matters. Public support does not translate into immediate emissions reduction. Policymakers should account for delays between changes in public opinion and observable outcomes. Second, public support must be translated into action. While receptivity creates favorable conditions, its effects depend on how effectively it is converted into policy, infrastructure, and behavioral change. Third, high-emission areas may present opportunities. Rising emissions appear to generate increased public concern, creating windows for policy intervention. Finally, policies that reduce perceived costs or increase perceived effectiveness may strengthen public support and accelerate the transition process.

Conclusion

Public opinion is often treated as a constraint on climate policy. This article suggests a different perspective. Public opinion is not just a political constraint. It is part of the transition process itself. Across counties, stronger support for climate policy is associated with lower emissions. Within counties, support responds to rising emissions. Over time, however, it contributes to emissions reduction through delayed mechanisms.

In this sense, climate change is not a static policy problem, but an evolving one. Emissions remain a persistent feature of economic activity, while public attitudes, policy environments, and institutional responses continue to shift over time. Effective climate policy must therefore be both durable and adaptive, capable of responding to immediate pressures while sustaining long-term transition pathways. As with many global challenges, conditions can be severe, improving, and still capable of further progress at the same time.¹²

This article presents an initial empirical exploration of climate transition receptivity. Future research will further develop causal identification and policy mechanisms. Understanding this dynamic is essential. The transition to a low-carbon economy depends not only on technology and regulation, but also on the social conditions that enable them.

Work Cited

IPCC. 2023. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report: A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf.
Environmental Protection Agency. 2025. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks | US EPA. US EPA. Published on February 8. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks.
Roser, M. 2022. The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/much-better-awful-can-be-better.
Aghion, P., Dechezleprêtre, A., Hémous, D., Martin, R., & Van Reenen, J. 2016. Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry. Journal of Political Economy, 124(1), 1–51. https://doi.org/10.1086/684581.
Drews, S., & van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. 2015. What explains public support for climate policies? A review of empirical and experimental studies. Climate Policy, 16(7), 855–876. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1058240.
Ibid.
Aghion, P., Dechezleprêtre, A., Hémous, D., Martin, R., & Van Reenen, J. 2016. Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry. Journal of Political Economy, 124(1), 1–51. https://doi.org/10.1086/684581.
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center. 2026. Vulcan Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center. https://earth.gov/ghgcenter/data-catalog/vulcan-ffco2-yeargrid-v4.
Howe, P. D., Mildenberger, M., Marlon, J. R., & Leiserowitz, A. 2015. Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA. Nature Climate Change, 5(6), 596–603. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2583.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2023. County population totals: 2020–2023.
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2023/counties/totals/co-est2023-alldata.csv.
Aghion, P., Dechezleprêtre, A., Hémous, D., Martin, R., & Van Reenen, J. 2016. Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry. Journal of Political Economy, 124(1), 1–51. https://doi.org/10.1086/684581.
Roser, M. 2022. The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/much-better-awful-can-be-better.

Author Bio

Muh Pungki Nur Setiawan is a second-year Master of Public Administration (MPA) student at Cornell University, specializing in Economic and Financial Policy. He is also a public sector professional at the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia, with extensive expertise at the intersection of taxation, accounting, and policy analysis. In parallel, he is pursuing studies in civil law. With over a decade of professional experience, he has contributed to tax policy development, regulatory drafting, and the strengthening of data governance systems. His current focus is expanding toward sustainable finance and its policy implications.

His research interests center on tax avoidance, environmental taxation, and public sector sustainability economics. He is currently conducting research in sustainability and global environmental economics (SGE), with a particular focus on how public policy and institutional capacity shape climate transition and broader economic systems.