The Role of Public-Private Partnerships in Resolving East Africa’s Fragility and Energy Paradox: A Dual Framework of Power and Legitimacy

By: Sayidcali Ahmed 

Edited By: Stephen Shiwei Wang

Introduction

East Africa stands at a critical juncture. The region is endowed with world-class geothermal, hydro, solar, and wind resources, theoretically offering a clear path to energy security and low-carbon development.1 Yet, this abundant potential remains largely untapped for the majority of its citizens and enterprises. The region is plagued by uneven electricity access, frequent and prolonged outages, and grid systems incapable of absorbing generated power.2 This contradiction, termed the East African energy paradox, represents a profound failure not solely of finance or engineering, but of governance.3 

In response, PPPs have been embraced as the dominant mechanism to bridge the infrastructure gap. A PPP is a long-term contractual arrangement between a public entity and a private company, where the private partner assumes significant risk and responsibility for financing, designing, building, and operating a public infrastructure asset.4 In the power sector, these are typically structured as Independent Power Producers entering into long-term Power Purchase Agreements with government-owned utilities. This model promises to mobilize private capital, introduce managerial efficiency, and accelerate capacity expansion while mitigating pressure on public balance sheets. 

Nevertheless, the record is decidedly mixed.5 Alongside notable success are cautionary tales of projects that deliver electrons but erode public trust through opaque contracting, unfair land acquisition, or unsustainable fiscal burdens.6 This inconsistency echoes a central insight from infrastructure policy scholar R. Richard Geddes, who argues that the success of private investment hinges not just on the capital injection, but on the governance and incentive structures it introduces. In his book The Road to Renewal, he emphasizes that PPPs must be evaluated against a critical question: “Compared to what?”- that is relative to the inefficiencies, politicization, and poor governance often endemic in traditional public procurement. He notes that well-designed PPPs can improve public control through enforceable contracts, increase accountability, and rationalize investment by aligning projects with economic value rather than political expediency.7 

This article builds on this foundation, arguing that for PPPs to be truly transformative, they must be conceived and executed as dual-purpose instruments. They must be engineered to transmit two inextricably linked currents: the Power Current and the Legitimacy Current. The Power Current denotes the technical-commercial function such as reliability, affordability, and the scale of delivery of electricity.  The Legitimacy Current denotes the socio-political function; the transparent, accountable, and equitable governance of a project’s entire lifecycle, from procurement and land acquisition to operation and contract conclusion. 

The central thesis is that excellence on only current guarantees eventual failure.8 For example, a project that generates power and is perceived as corrupt or socially destructive will lose its license and public trust to operate. Conversely, a process deemed perfectly fair but fails to deliver cost-effective electricity squanders public resources and deepens the accessibility crisis. A continental diagnosis establishes this dual paradigm. Africa hosts approximately 75 percent of the global population without electricity, with outages imposing severe economic costs.9

This article applies the ‘Dual Framework of Power and Legitimacy’ to a comparative analysis of Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia. This analytical framework, developed for this study, is built on a simple but critical premise drawn from the core finding of the United Nations Office of the Special Adviser on Africa report: Africa’s development is hindered by interconnected paradoxes, including an energy paradox of abundant resources alongside chronic deficits. The framework posits that resolving this paradox requires an energy project to be truly successful and sustainable; it must be delivered on two fronts at once. It must deliver power – reliable and affordable electricity that meets demand. At the same time, it must deliver legitimacy — transparent, fair, and accountable governance that earns public trust.10 If one of these two circuits is broken, the entire system fails. The value of this framework lies in its diagnostic ability to pinpoint exactly where a project is faltering. This approach provides a far more complete understanding of success than traditional metrics. 

The Power-Legitimacy Framework: Indicators and Measures 

A PPP in energy represents a fundamental shift in how public infrastructure is delivered. Rather than the state/government financing, building, and operating power plants directly, it contracts with private entities that bring capital and expertise in exchange for a long-term revenue stream, typically through a Power Purchase Agreement.11 While this model offers a pathway to scale investment in capacity-constrained environments, the standard rationale focusing solely on financial efficiency is insufficient for fragile states with weak government institutions. This power-legitimacy framework provides a structured lens to evaluate whether PPPs strengthen both technical performance and public trust. 

To operationalize this framework, measurable indicators are required for each of its two components. This allows for systemic comparison across countries and projects, moving beyond anecdotal evidence to identify weaknesses in either infrastructure delivery or governance processes. 

The Power Component: Delivering Electricity 

This component assesses the tangible delivery of electricity services through six indicators: 

Renewable Integration and Resource Utilization: The share of generation from renewable sources and the efficiency of domestic resource harnessing.12 

Generation Growth and Demand Absorption: The rate of new capacity addition and the system’s ability to meet growing demand.13

Dispatch Constraints and Deemed Energy: The frequency and cost of payments for available but un-dispatchable power due to grid limitations, a critical indicator of poor system planning.14 

Plant Performance for Flagship Assets: Operational metrics like availability factor and forced outage rates for major PPP projects (World Bank & IFC project evaluation and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) contracts).15 

Grid-Enabling Reforms: Adoption of policies like net metering, time-of use tariffs, and open-access regulations to support modern, flexible grid.16 

Bankable PPP Pipeline: The existence of a transparent, competitive project pipeline supported by standardized documents.17 

The Legitimacy Component: Earning Public Trust

This component evaluates the governance processes that underpin public trust through six indicators. 

Regulatory Quality: The independence, transparency, and capacity of the sector regulator.18 

Tariff Governance and Affordability: Transparency in tariff setting, stakeholder consultation, and mechanisms to pass refinancing saving consumers (Central to International Energy Agency (2024).19 

Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) and Land Governance: The integrity of processes for land acquisition, fair compensation, and accessible grievance redress for affected communities.20

Fiscal Risk Management: The prudent use of government guarantees, public disclosure of contingent liabilities, and alignment of power purchase agreement (PPA) commitments with long-term fiscal sustainability.21 Geddes highlights that a key benefit of PPPs is the transfer of risk from taxpayers to professional investors, but this requires careful contractual design to avoid hidden public liabilities.22 

Concession and End-of-Term Governance: Clarity and fairness in contractual provisions for asset buy-out, renewal, or hand-back, and efficiency in dispute resolution.23 

Policy Coherence: The alignment of PPP laws, procurement rules, and national energy plans with broader macroeconomic stability.24 

The compelling need for this two-part analysis is reflected in the profound scale of the paradox it seeks to address. Africa’s share of global electricity generation remains stalled at roughly 1.1 percent, a figure grossly misaligned with its 17 percent share of the world’s population.25 The same diagnostic report identifies underbuilt transmission networks and regulatory bottlenecks as primary constraints. This problem elevates the importance of certain indicators, such as dispatching private partnerships that successfully add generation capacity, but simultaneously exacerbates costly deemed energy payments. Having more electricity generations may appear effective on the power component, but in reality, its fiscal irresponsibility and poor planning actively corrode the legitimacy component. 

The indicators comprising the Power and Legitimacy components of this framework are derived through a synthesis of documented sectoral challenges and established performance metrics. They are drawn directly from these sources: 1) explicit metrics published in referenced reports from institutions including the African Development Bank, World Bank, and national regulators; 2) standard technical and commercial key performance indicators used in power project financing and evaluation; and 3) governance and social risk factors consistently identified in case study analysis of African energy projects.26 27 This approach guarantees that each indicator is grounded in observed data points or widely recognized sector benchmarks rather than theoretical constructs. 

Case Study Analysis: Power & Legitimacy in Practice 

Kenya: Regulatory Excellence vs Localized Legitimacy Failure 

Kenya’s power sector excels in the power component, with over 80 percent renewable capacity and advanced grid reforms like net metering.28 It also demonstrates strong regulatory quality, underpinned by an independent regulator.29 However, the Lake Turkana Wind Power exposes a critical legitimacy deficit. Despite its technical success, the project remains mired in litigation over inadequate community consultation and unresolved compensation for indigenous groups.30 This demonstrates that robust national regulation can’t compensate for a failure in community consent, turning unmanaged social risk into a persistent operational and financial threat. 

Uganda: Successful Generation Undermined by Systemic Weaknesses 

Uganda’s Bujagali hydropower project PPP is a power success, increasing reliability and displacing expensive thermal power.31 Its refinancing, which lowered tariffs, is a positive example of tariff governance.  Yet, this sector is burdened by massive “deemed energy” payments over USD 213 million (2018-2025) due to transmission constraints that strand generated power.32 Concurrently, the contentious end of the Umeme concession reveals profound weaknesses in end-of-term governance, creating uncertainty for investors.33 The lesson is that generation projects without synchronized grid investment and clear contextual exit plans are unsustainable, failing both framework components. 

Ethiopia: Programmatic Promise Meets a Legitimacy Threshold 

Ethiopia’s programmatic approach, using World Bank guarantees to attract solar and wind energy investments, skillfully builds a bankable pipeline and manages fiscal risk.34 35 However, the program’s long-term viability depends on future performance on the legitimacy component. Ethiopia must institutionalize transparent, cost-reflective tariff governance and demonstrably fair community consent processes before its project pipelines reach financial close. Its credibility hinges on proving that procedural equity is as prioritized as rapid deployment. 

Policy Recommendations & Integrated Roadmap. 

This analysis yields five integrated policy recommendations designed to guarantee PPPs fulfill their dual mandate of delivering reliable power and sustaining public legitimacy. 

Elevate Regulatory Transparency from Principle to Practice: Mandate public disclosure of all PPA and tariff methodologies. Require public hearings for major decisions and publish annual performance scorecards against benchmarks like the Electricity Regulatory Index, with public remedial plans.36 

Discipline Fiscal Risk Sharing with Smart Guarantees: Replace blanket sovereign guarantees with targeted Partial Risk Guarantees. Pass legislated limits on conditional obligations and demand their yearly revelation in public finances. Integrate compulsory refunding provisions in PPAs to transfer gains and savings to consumers.37 

Institutionalize Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) as Bankability Criterion: Require independent verification of lawful land acquisition, fair compensation, and operational grievance mechanisms as a mandatory condition for financial close (International Working Group for Indigenous Affairs, 2024).38 

Implement Generation-Transmission Synchronization: Legally integrate transmission planning with the generation pipeline. Publish a financed grid reinforcement plan with every generation tender and maintain a public “grid bottleneck map” to eliminate wasteful deemed energy payments.39 

Mandate Policy Coherence through Pipeline Discipline: Develop a rolling, medium-term PPP pipeline explicitly aligned with the national energy plan and fiscal framework. Adopt competitive, technology-agnostic auctions and standardized contracts as the default model.40 41

These actions should be implemented through a three-year phased roadmap. 

Phase 1 (0-6 months): Conduct legal gap analyses, adopt PPA disclosure policies, and establish an inter-ministerial PPP task force.  

Phase 2 (7-18 months): Launch competitive auctions, publish standard contracts, finance synchronized transmission projects, and operationalize an FPIC verification framework. 

Phase 3 (19-36 months): Execute PPA refinancing reviews, publish annual Dual Framework of Power and Legitimacy performance scorecards, and commission independent audits of consent processes and fiscal risk. 

Conclusion

The East African energy paradox is, in its resolution, a defining challenge of statecraft. This analysis demonstrates that chronic scarcity amidst abundance is a direct outcome of imbalanced interventions. The dual framework of ‘power and legitimacy’ applied to the experiences of Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, reveals a consistent truth; PPPs that deliver electrons without equity, or process without power, don’t build resilience, they compound fragility. Kenya’s localized legitimacy deficits, Uganda’s systemic planning failures, and Ethiopia’s looming credibility threshold all chart the same dangerous course toward stranded assets, fiscal drains, and social discord. Therefore, the imperative isn’t just to deploy more projects, but to fundamentally re-engineer the circuit of development itself, guaranteeing the currents of ‘Power and Legitimacy’ flow in tandem to energize both economies and the social contract.  

Forging this circuit demands a transformation in practice, moving from isolated contracts to cultivating a transparent, accountable, and intelligent energy ecosystem. This begins with the political courage to treat national energy compacts not as aspirations but as binding operational blueprints. It requires implementing the disciplined reforms outlined in this paper; elevating regulatory transparency, institutionalizing community consent as a bankable criterion, synchronizing generation with transmission, and mandating fiscal discipline through smart risk-sharing. As the private sector asserts, investment at scale requires “constitution” for energy access.44 Simultaneously, the public sector must develop the capacity to be shrewd, long-term stewards of these partnerships, leveraging them not for political patronage but for enduring public gain.  

Critically, building this resilient ecosystem necessitates a paradigm shift from a singular obsession with supply to a holistic strategy of energy intelligence. The relentless pursuit of generation capacity is a fiscal and technical trap. The foundation for sustainable energy security must be the “invisible powerhouse” of efficiency.45 Prioritizing efficient appliances, buildings and industries is a strategic masterstroke, it’s the fastest way to lower costs, reduce import dependence, alleviate grid strain, and directly tackle the inequitable ‘cooling gap’. It transforms energy access from a binary challenge into a lever for increased productivity, health, and competitiveness.  

Ultimately, the Mission to Power Africa is a mission to prove that governance works. Every substation built, every kilometer of wire strung, and every community consulted is a test of public trust. Success, therefore, depends on relentless, granular focus on execution, the “transactional approach” of unblocking specific obstacles, from land title disputes to interconnection queues, that separate high-level compacts from lived reality.46 The dual framework provides the essential diagnostic tool for this task, allowing policymakers to pinpoint and repair breaks in either circuit (power or legitimacy). 

Works Cited 

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  2. African Development Bank. 2023. Light Up and Power Africa – A New Deal on Energy for Africa. Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire: African Development Bank Group. https://www.afdb.org/en/the-high-5/light-up-and-power-africa-%E2%80%93-a-new-deal-on-energy-for-africa. 
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  8. African Development Bank Group. 2022. Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Strategic Framework (2021–2031). Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire: African Development Bank Group. https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/sectors/public-private-partnerships.
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  10. Ibid.
  11. International Finance Corporation. 2021. Attracting Investment into Africa’s Energy Infrastructure. Washington, D.C.: International Finance Corporation. https://energycapitalpower.com/ifc-to-commit-25m-to-africas-new-energy-transition-fund/. 
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  13. Kenya Court of Appeal. 2023. Lake Turkana Wind Power Ltd v Kochale & 13 others (Civil Application E064 of 2023) [2023] KECA 1596 (KLR) (Ruling). Nairobi, Kenya: Kenya Law Reports. https://kenyalaw.org/caselaw/cases/view/265996/
  14. Electricity Regulatory Authority. 2023. GET FiT Annual Reports. Kampala, Uganda: Electricity Regulatory Authority. https://www.era.go.ug/getfit-annual-reports/.
  15.  Public-private-partnership legal resource center.” n.d. Public-private-partnership legal resource center, https://ppp.worldbank.org/sector/energy/energy-power-agreements/power-purchase-agreements 
  16. Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority. 2024. Energy & Petroleum Statistics Report FY 2023–2024. Nairobi, Kenya: Government of Kenya. https://www.epra.go.ke/sites/default/files/2024-10/EPRA%20Energy%20and%20Petroleum%20Statistics%20Report%20FY%202023-2024_2.pdf. 
  17. World Bank. 2019. Ethiopia – Renewable Energy Guarantees Program (REGREP) Project Document. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/363131558922556843/ethiopia-renewable-energy-guarantees-program-project. 
  18. African Development Bank. 2024. Electricity Regulatory Index (ERI) for Africa 2024 Report. Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire: African Development Bank Group. https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/eri_2024_report_afdb_eng.pdf.
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  25. United Nations Office of the Special Adviser on Africa. 2023. Solving the Paradoxes of Africa’s Development: Financing, Energy and Food Systems. New York: United Nations. https://www.un.org/osaa/content/solving-paradoxes-africas-development-financing-energy-and-food-systems.
  26. Ronge, A., Shastry, V., & Kamau, A. 2024. Public Private Partnerships in the African Energy Sector (Fact Sheet). New York: Columbia SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy. https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/PPPsinAfrica-CGEP_FactSheet_040124.pdf.
  27. PricewaterhouseCoopers. 2021. Africa Energy Review 2021. Johannesburg, South Africa: PricewaterhouseCoopers South Africa. https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/assets/pdf/africa-energy-review-2021.pdf.
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  32. Ibid. 
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  37. Blended Finance Taskforce. 2023. Better Guarantees, Better Finance Consultation Paper. London: Blended Finance Taskforce. https://www.systemiq.earth/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Blended-Finance-Taskforce-2023-Better-Guarantees-Better-Finance-1.pdf.
  38. International Working Group for Indigenous Affairs. 2024. Indigenous communities in Kenya still tied up in court proceedings over the Lake Turkana Wind Project. https://iwgia.org/en/news/5342-indigenous-communities-kenya-court-proceedings-lake-turkana-wind-project.html.
  39. Electricity Regulatory Authority. 2023. GET FiT Annual Reports. Kampala, Uganda: Electricity Regulatory Authority. https://www.era.go.ug/getfit-annual-reports/.
  40. African Development Bank Group. 2022. Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Strategic Framework (2021–2031). Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire: African Development Bank Group. https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/sectors/public-private-partnerships.
  41. World Bank. 2022. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2022. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/a1abead2-de91-5992-bb7a-73d8aaaf767f.
  42. Geddes, R. R. 2011. The Road to Renewal: Private Investment in U.S. Transportation Infrastructure. Washington, D.C.: The AEI Press. https://www.aei.org/research-products/book/the-road-to-renewal/. 
  43. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. 2019. Economic Report on Africa 2019: Fiscal Policy for Financing Sustainable Development in Africa. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: UNECA. https://www.uneca.org/economic-report-africa-2019.
  44. World Bank. 2025. Mission 300: Powering development in Sub-Saharan Africa* (No. 46) [Audio podcast episode]. In The Development Podcast. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/podcast/2025/03/03/mission-300-sub-saharan-africa-electricity-powering-development-podcast 
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  46. World Bank. 2025. Mission 300: Powering development in Sub-Saharan Africa* (No. 46) [Audio podcast episode]. In The Development Podcast. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/podcast/2025/03/03/mission-300-sub-saharan-africa-electricity-powering-development-podcast 

Author Bio

Sayidcali Ahmed is a second-year Master of Public Administration student at Cornell University’s Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy, concentrating in Economic and Financial Policy. He brings experience from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and community-based leadership in Minnesota. As a MasterCard Foundation Scholar and PPIA Fellow at Princeton University, his distinguished academic record includes membership in Pi Sigma Alpha and the Order of the Sword & Shield honor societies. Proficient in Stata, R, Python, and SQL, he aims to bridge global institutions and the private sector through a career in product strategy and infrastructure finance. He is particularly interested in roles that leverage his analytical skills for impactful infrastructure projects in emerging markets.

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